Are you ready for some football? With the latest National Football League (NFL) season underway, every week, millions of fans settle in to watch their favorite teams hit the gridiron and compete. The popularity of the NFL continues to rise across the globe. In fact, the NFL has become so popular that teams now schedule a handful of games to be played in London each year. As the NFL becomes more popular worldwide, the amount of people trying to make money betting on the NFL also grows. The only question is, can a person actually be profitable betting on the NFL, and if so, how can they do it? In this article, we will explore some of the best strategies for perfecting your NFL betting experience. While we certainly cannot guarantee you will win every bet, we can guide you towards great NFL betting strategies for your best chance of success. Whether you’re a beginner looking to bet on your first NFL game, or an experienced sports gambler looking for new tips, our review is just what you need.
Never Bet With Your Heart
You might know the name of every player on the roster of your favorite team. You may watch every game they play in and wear an official Denver Broncos jersey while doing so. You may even call yourself their “biggest fan,” but none of that means they are the team to put money on each week.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, you have roughly 14 games per weekend to bet on. Generally speaking, 28 of the 32 teams play each weekend, with the other four teams rotating on a bye-week schedule. Therefore, you should look at that lineup of 14 games as 14 opportunities to find value in each game. If you insist on only betting on Broncos games because they’re your favorite team, then you’re missing out on some very lucrative opportunities. A few other reasons you don’t want to bet with your heart include:
- It Gets Too Emotional – Profitable bettors are those who can emotionally distance themselves from every bet that they make. They don’t get emotionally tied up in it. They make a bet then allow the outcome to be whatever it is going to be. This is a lot harder to do when you genuinely care about the team you’re betting on (or against).
- You May Wager Too Heavily – Being passionate about the Broncos isn’t a bad thing, even if they are having a bad year. A true fan roots for their team during the good years and the bad. However, team loyalty can lead to believing your team will win no matter what and betting heavily on them. In reality, you might not place a bet on your team if you approached the game objectively and didn’t focus on your feelings about the team. None of us truly know what will happen in any given NFL, and we should remember this when we are betting on the NFL.
- Your Team May Be On A Bye Week – If you only bet on your favorite team, you may miss opportunities to win during bye weeks. Every team gets at least one week off during the season, and that would mean you had no chance to bet on them during that week.
Pay Attention To Home-Field Advantage
Home-field advantage is real and can influence the outcome of a game. Playing on home turf can be an advantage for the home team because of the roar of cheering fans and familiarity with the stadium, which tends to give them an edge in the game overall. Las Vegas bookmakers have known this for years and have adjusted their NFL betting lines to reflect that teams with home-field advantage tend to have a better chance of winning.
It is estimated that the value of playing at home is worth about 2.8 points in favor of the home team. That kind of point spread is certainly worth paying attention to and incorporating into your NFL betting strategies.
Aside from the crowd and stadium, home teams are playing against teams that had to travel, perhaps across time zones, to play in a hostile environment that is loud and daunting. Never underestimate home-field advantage when making bets. Even underdogs are more likely to win an upset at home.
Don’t Get Caught Up in the Trends
There are very few trends in the data that are worth spending any time on when betting on the NFL. People love trying to find long-term patterns in data and assuming that those patterns have real meaning when making bets. This is usually where people come up with a “system” for betting on specific teams. Although some trends can work in your favor, following those trends blindly can do more harm to a person’s bankroll than good.
For example, New England’s winning streak against Buffalo was 6-1 under Sean McDermott leading into the 2020 season, making New England a safe bet to win against Buffalo based on that trend. However, the Bills (who came in as underdogs) beat the Patriots in both games during 2020, meaning anyone betting on New England lost big. Owners, coaches, players, and even a team’s city can from one year to the next. Last year’s trends may have no impact whatsoever on how a team performs this year or next year.
Keep your head in the current season, and you should be just fine. If you allow yourself only to bet based on trends, you are likely to lose big when the trends don’t follow the pattern you’ve relied on.
Injury Reports Matter
Who is hurt this week, and why does it matter? When it comes to player dynamics, the teams’ strategy, and their overall odds of success, the injury report is one of the most valuable documents to look at. Imagine that a heavily favored team has an injury report come out that says their star quarterback is injured and that the backup QB will be starting. This can change the entire dynamic of the game and means that you should rethink your NFL betting strategy for that game.
A team that looked to easily cover a 6.5 point spread, with every player healthy, may suddenly not be the favorite in that game. Sadly, if you do not pay attention to or choose to ignore the injury report, you could easily find yourself on the wrong side of a bet, and that is something you never want to experience. It is crucial to read over the injury reports for any game you consider betting on. You should also wait until it is closer to kickoff before placing your bets to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information.
Establish & Strictly Follow a Good Bankroll Strategy
You cannot survive a full season of NFL betting if you don’t use proper bankroll management. It is as simple as deciding how much in total you are willing to spend for the season, then using that to determine how much you will bet per game. Nearly every expert recommends betting about one percent of your bankroll per game, with no more than two percent on any given contest. This means if you set aside $1,000 to start your season, then you should never have more than $20 on any given game (two percent).
No matter how talented you are as a gambler, everyone goes through downswings at some point. You could even find yourself on a losing streak, losing five or ten losses in a row. If you are making bets over a set percentage, you could spend your entire bankroll in just one bad weekend. It can also be very tempting to try to bet more on a “sure thing” to try to make up for previously lost bets. The problem is, if you lose, you will be in even worse shape. Instead, use discipline and stick to your bankroll strategy right from the start. There is no reason to deviate from it.
Divisional Matchups Change the Game
Give a little extra attention to games that are divisional matchups. The Broncos play each team in the division twice per year, once at home and once away. Division rivalries get to know each other and each other’s strategies, which may lead to a different outcome than what you might expect. Even a team that is struggling during the season might find the extra strength and determination to come away with a win against a superior divisional opponent, especially at home. Be mindful of this when crafting NFL betting strategies. You should always take into account that some teams are more likely to perform better when playing their division rivals. That theory works both ways. A team might be on fire during a season but historically falls apart when playing a division rival. You may find yourself on the losing end of a large bet because your team plays poorly against a rival after coming off a winning streak.
Bet Sober, Don’t Tilt, and, Most of All, Have Fun!
Beer and football! These two things tend to go hand in hand. Beer companies spend millions on ads during NFL games because they know people love to drink during football games. It loosens fans up and allows them to enjoy the entertainment more fully. That said, wait until after you make your bet to crack open a cold one. Drinking clouds your judgment and can make you more prone to unnecessary risk-taking. This combination is dangerous, and it can push you to make decisions that you wouldn’t normally make if you were betting on the NFL while sober.
Everyone wants to have fun while making bets, but it is generally a good idea to stay away from alcohol until after you’re done. Maintaining a level head while betting puts you in the best possible position to make wagers that are logical and profitable overall. Drinking can also lead to tilt, which means you’re more likely to get angry and bet aggressively if you lose a bet. Don’t forget rule #1: Never Bet with Your Heart! Most importantly, NFL betting is meant to make the game more exciting so, whatever strategy you use, have fun!
NFL Betting Is Offered At The Triple Crown Casino
After reading this article, we hope you’re excited to start NFL Betting! Join us at the Triple Crown Casino for the best NFL gridiron action. We offer the full lineup of games, we manage bets across multiple lines so you can make any type of bet you can imagine, and we have plenty of room, beer (after you make your bets), and game day foods while you enjoy the games and watch the drama unfold! Set up a sports betting account with us and place a wager at the window or use one of our conveniently located electronic terminals. If you’re ready to bet on the NFL, we look forward to seeing you this season.
Don’t Want To Drive? Enjoy Our Shuttle Service
Finally, we would like to note that we offer a shuttle service to and from the casino if you don’t want to drive. Enjoy a weekend of live NFL action with us! We are happy to pick you up and bring you back to any of the public locations that our shuttles service.
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